PSU Analyse AMCOR Financial and Investor Communication

Description

From the perspective of an external critic, analyze how AMCOR releases its key messages and story, how AMC’s stakeholders get messages, and the effectiveness of AMC’s communication based on the half year results announcement made by AMCOR in Feb 2022. The analysis should apply communication theroys.This essay should include:1. analyze 5 or so key points and stories from AMC’s news release.2. assess how stakeholders get messages by:- focusing on key points and investment conclusions in the analyst report- the results announcement in media coverage- the market reaction based on the AMC share price trends announcement (available from ASX Web)- quotes from news release used by stakeholders- stakeholders’ concerns3. the effectiveness of AMC’s communication strateg

5 attachmentsSlide 1 of 5attachment_1attachment_1attachment_2attachment_2attachment_3attachment_3attachment_4attachment_4attachment_5attachment_5

Unformatted Attachment Preview

This publication was downloaded for exclusive use by: John.Purtell@macquarie.com
2 February 2022
Australia
EQUITIES
Amcor (AMC AU)
Still solid
AMC AU
Outperform
A$16.36
Price (at 06:34, 02 Feb 2022 GMT)
Valuation
A$
18.14
– DCF (WACC 6.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 2.5%,
TGR 1.5%)
12-month target
12-month TSR
Volatility Index
GICS sector
Market cap
30-day avg turnover
Number shares on issue
A$
%
18.14
+15.0
Low/Medium
Materials
A$m
26,291
A$m
44.6
m
1,607
Investment fundamentals
Year end 30 Jun
Revenue
EBIT
Reported profit
Adjusted profit
Gross cashflow
CFPS
CFPS growth
PGCFPS
PGCFPS rel
EPS adj
EPS adj growth
PER adj
PER rel
Total DPS
Total div yield
Franking
ROA
ROE
EV/EBITDA
Net debt/equity
P/BV
2021A
2022E
2023E
2024E
m 12,861 13,978 13,813 14,215
m 1,621 1,688 1,774 1,850
m
939
995 1,056 1,094
m 1,158 1,211 1,252 1,290
m 1,577 1,633 1,688 1,740
¢ 101.3 107.5 112.1 115.6
%
12.1
6.1
4.3
3.1
x
11.4
10.7
10.3
10.0
x
1.20
1.05
0.96
0.95
¢
74.4
79.8
83.2
85.7
%
15.9
7.2
4.3
3.0
x
15.5
14.5
13.9
13.5
x
0.91
0.87
0.81
0.82
¢
47.0
49.8
50.3
51.8
%
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.5
%
0
0
0
0
%
9.6
9.9
10.4
10.7
%
24.7
26.1
26.8
25.9
x
11.7
11.2
10.6
10.2
% 112.8 121.6 108.7
96.9
x
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.4
AMC AU rel ASX 100 performance, & rec history
Key points
 1H22 underlying NPAT of US$548m, modestly below our US$557m.
 Good job of managing raw material and supply chain pressures.
 FY guidance of 7-11% adjusted EPS growth reiterated (CC basis).
Event
• AMC reported 1H22 underlying NPAT of US$548m, modestly below our
US$557m and +5% on pcp. Operating cash flow is always seasonally weaker
in 1H but this was exacerbated by higher raw mats and Rigids inventory build.
Importantly free cash guidance of $1.1-$1.2b was re-iterated.
Impact
• Result was a slight miss vs our forecasts (-1.6% to NPAT) but big picture is
AMC continues to do a good job of managing raw material and supply
chain pressures. Encouragingly, USA resin sourcing pressures have
eased for Rigids which has allowed AMC to guide for 2H Rigids growth vs
pcp. Flexibles saw a negative price/cost variance in period (described as nonmaterial but negative nonetheless). Given a typical 3-4 month recovery lag and
stable to easing raw mat outlook (eg US resin prices -10-15% in Dec Q), we
think price cost spread should be neutral to positive in 2H.
• FY guidance of 7-11% adjusted EPS growth reiterated (CC basis). We are at
mid-point of guidance on same basis. 1H eps represents 44.9% of our FY
in line with historic trends and noting expected 2H rebound in Rigids per
guidance.
• In addition to $400m buyback ann’d previously ($295m complete), AMC will
allocate a further $200m toward share repurchases. M&A remains on the
agenda but high prices & less due diligence ability due to COVID have been
challenges. M&A is likely to be bolt-on in nature rather than larger scale but
to be in greater focus with AMC now in final year of Bemis synergies.
Earnings and target price revision
• No change in FY22 and FY23/24 eps +12 months.
The not so good…
• 1H22 underlying NPAT of US$548m,
modestly below our US$557m and +5%
on pcp. 1H22 adjusted EPS of 35.8cps vs
our 36.3cps (VisAlpha consensus 36cps).
Q2 eps of 18.1cps vs our 18.6cps.
• Reported NPAT of $427m impacted by
SIs of -$144m pre-tax (-$121 post-tax)
attributed to restructuring costs, amort of
acq’d intangibles, and property and other
losses re destruction of Durban facility
during civil unrest (latter from Q1).
• Flexibles EBIT of US$691m, below our
US$714m forecast. Constant currency 1H
EBIT growth in Flexibles of 7% vs Q1’s
+8%. EBIT margin of 12.9% compares to
13.5% in the pcp and below our 13.4%.
Bigger raw mat pass top-line through in Q2
vs Q1, which accounts for some of margin
miss vs our forecast (raw mat pass thru 130bp margin impact hence underlying
margins +70bp ex this). Slight negative FX
as well. Supply chain disruptions had a
dampening effect on growth in some
categories, hence volumes were flat vs pcp
(vs -1% in Q1).
• Operating cash flow of US$323m, below
our US$451m and pcp of US$442m (1H
WC / debt always seasonally higher with
higher raw mat and Rigids inventory build).
However, FY free cash guidance was reiterated.
The interesting…
• Favourable price/mix of 2% in the
Flexibles segment with high single digit
growth in healthcare and double-digit growth
in pet food and coffee. Supply chain
disruptions in Flexibles had a dampening
effect on growth in some categories and first
half volumes were in line with the first half last
year, although volumes grew in 2Q.
• Flexibles by geography: In North America,
1H volume growth in the low single digit
range was mainly driven by strength in the
medical, condiments, liquid beverage and
confectionary end markets. This was partly
offset by lower cheese, coffee and frozen
food volumes. Europe, delivered low single
digit volume growth in 2Q. Through 1H,
volumes were marginally lower vs the pcp
with growth in pet food, medical, premium
coffee and confectionary end markets offset
by lower snack food volumes. Asian
emerging markets delivered high single digit
volume growth and volumes in Latin America
were lower than the pcp with sequential
improvement in the December quarter.
• As flagged in Q1, the Rigids business in
North America has been adversely impacted
by industry wide supply chain disruptions
and shortages of key raw materials.
Demand remained elevated in the beverage
segment while the business continued to
operate at full capacity and with low levels of
inventory resulting in inefficiencies and higher
costs. Lower earnings in North America were
partly offset by earnings growth in Latin
America. Improving trends and earnings
performance towards end of 1H.
• AMC is investing in multiple drivers of
organic growth including 1) priority
segments such as healthcare, protein, pet
food, premium coffee and hot-fill beverage; 2)
emerging markets with mid-single digit growth
across the portfolio; and 3) innovation inc
world class global innovation centre network.
• Launching new products such as new
AmPrimo recycle ready laminate.
Source: Macquarie Research, February 2022
2 February 2022
2
Macquarie Research
Amcor (AMC AU)
Analysis
Fig 2
7-11% eps growth guidance for FY22 reiterated; AMC delivered 16% eps growth in FY21 vs prior guidance of 14-15%
Result snapshot (A$m)
FY19a
FY20a
ch.pcp
FY21a
ch.pcp
1H22a
ch.pcp
2H22e
ch.pcp
FY22e
ch.pcp
FY23e
ch.pcp
FY24e
ch.pcp
Sales
EBIT
Net interest (inc PACRS)
Tax expense
Minorities
NPAT (pre sign. items)
Significant items
Reported NPAT
9,458
1,075
191
148
7
729
-299
430
12,468
1,497
185
280
4
1,028
-416
612
32%
39%
-3%
89%
-44%
41%
12,861
1,621
139
312
12
1,158
-219
939
3%
8%
-25%
11%
200%
13%
6,927
769
69
147
5
548
-121
427
12%
4%
-2%
2%
0%
5%
7,051
919
70
178
7
663
-95
568
6%
5%
3%
7%
0%
4%
13,978
1,688
139
325
12
1,211
-206
1,005
9%
4%
0%
4%
0%
5%
13,813
1,774
163
346
12
1,252
-186
1,066
-1%
5%
17%
7%
2%
3%
14,215
1,850
180
367
13
1,290
-186
1,104
3%
4%
11%
6%
5%
3%
Net debt
Gearing (ND:ND+E)
Interest cover (EBIT)
5,502
49%
5.6
5,491
54%
8.1
0%
5,439
53%
11.7
-1%
6,043
57%
11.1
5%
5,600
55%
13.1
3%
5,600
55%
12.1
3%
5,346
52%
10.9
-5%
5,081
49%
10.3
-5%
Divisional EBIT
FY19a
FY20a
ch.pcp
FY21a
ch.pcp
1H22a
ch.pcp
2H22e
ch.pcp
FY22e
ch.pcp
FY23e
ch.pcp
FY24e
ch.pcp
Flexibles
Rigid Plastics
Investments/Other
Total EBIT
817
308
-50
1075
1296
284
-83
1497
59%
-8%
66%
39%
1427
299
-105
1621
10%
5%
27%
8%
691
117
-39
769
6%
-13%
-12%
4%
809
171
-61
919
4%
4%
0%
5%
1500
288
-100
1688
5%
-4%
-5%
4%
1554
326
-106
1774
4%
13%
7%
5%
1607
353
-110
1850
3%
8%
4%
4%
42%
53%
2%
9%
7%
6%
3%
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, February 2022
Slight miss vs our forecasts but still solid
• AMC reported 1H22 underlying NPAT of US$548m, modestly below our US$557m and +5% on pcp.
1H22 adjusted EPS of 35.8cps vs our 36.3cps (VisAlpha consensus 36cps). Q2 eps of 18.1cps vs
our 18.6cps. Reported NPAT of $427m impacted by SIs of -$144m pre-tax (-$121 post-tax) attributed to
restructuring costs, amort of acq’d intangibles, and property and other losses re destruction of Durban
facility during civil unrest (latter from Q1). 1H dividend of US24.0cps, with Q2 of 12.0cps, higher than
pcp of 11.75cps. In addition to the $400m buyback announced previously, AMC will allocate a further
$200m toward share repurchases, although not expected to benefit EPS growth until FY23.
• Sales of US$6.93b just above our US$6.85b forecast, and this includes price increases of ~$650m
(representing 11% growth) related to pass through of higher raw material costs. EBITDA of US$976m
modestly below our US$988m, +3% vs pcp. EBIT of US$769m modestly below our US$783m, and
vs $743m in the pcp.
• Net interest expense of US$69m, in line with our US$70m. Effective tax rate was 21.0%, in line with our
21.3%. Operating cash flow of US$323m, below our US$451m and pcp of US$442m (1H WC / debt
always seasonally higher with higher raw mat and Rigids inventory build). FY free cash guidance reiterated. Net debt was US$6.04b, vs $5.96b end of Sept and above our US$5.7b fct. Net debt/PBITDA
(LTM) is 2.9x, in line with AMC’s expectations.
• Flexibles EBIT of US$691m, below our US$714m forecast. 1H CC EBIT +7% (Q1 +8%) on pcp reflects
growth in priority high value segments and strong cost performance. EBIT margin of 12.9% compares to
13.5% in the pcp and below our 13.4% with sales increases of ~$480m (representing 10% growth)
related to pass through of higher raw material costs. So a bigger raw mat pass through in Q2 vs Q1,
which accounts for some of margin miss vs our forecast (although raw mats not called out as material
earnings item). Slight negative FX as well. Supply chain disruptions had a dampening effect on growth
in some categories, hence volumes were flat vs pcp (vs -1% in Q1).
• Rigid Plastics EBIT of US$117m (-13% on pcp) beat our US$114m but down on last year’s US$134m.
Nth Am bev vols +3% (hot fill volumes flat on pcp which grew a strong 19%). EBIT margin of 7.4% vs
9.9% in the pcp and in line with our 7.5%. Earnings performance improved towards the end of the
period and AMC expects a return to earnings growth in 2H22 for Rigids, which is pleasing.
Other/investments (incl AMVIG) of – US$39m, vs our -$44m fct.
• FY guidance of 7-11% adjusted EPS growth (CC basis) reiterated. AMC had modestly upgraded FY
guidance at Feb result in each of last two year’s although raw mat / supply chain environment is now
more challenging.
2 February 2022
3
Macquarie Research
Fig 3
Amcor (AMC AU)
Asian resin prices quite volatile over the past year
1,450
Asian resin prices
$/t
1,350
1,250
1,150
1,050
950
850
750
650
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
HDPE Spot Far East Asia, CFR
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
PP Spot Far East Asia, CFR (general purpose, film)
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2022
• AMC’s Flexibles business generally has 3-4 month pass through lag re resin costs (mix of contract
and spot-based recovery – typical 2/3 contract, 1/3 spot as % of sales). In the past, emerging markets
(EM) cost recovery has been longer at 6 months vs 3 months in developed but EM recovery is now
more timely. AMC has experience in managing raw mat volatility (ie FY18) which is enabling it to be
more pro-active this time around.
• The US freeze in Feb 2021 impacted US petchem supply which along with strong consumer demand
has seen extreme resin market tightness through CY21. In Q4 2021, USA Petchem plants started to
catch up to demand with supply normalising and US resin prices easing 10-15%. This should provide
some relief for AMC in Q3 (March Q) although resin prices remain elevated in other geographies.
Fig 4
Aluminium prices in EUR terms have returned to historic highs
Aluminium Euro/t
2,800
FY22 Average
2,600
FY21 Average
2,400
FY20 Average
2,200
FY19 Average
FY18 Average
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
Mar-17
Aug-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Nov-18
Apr-19
Sep-19
Feb-20
Jul-20
Dec-20 May-21
Oct-21
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2022
2 February 2022
4
Macquarie Research
Amcor (AMC AU)
Fig 5 Titanium dioxide prices at historically high levels… a key input for AMC; contractual and
spot pass-through mechanisms in place
Titanium Dioxide price
22,000
21,000
CNY/metric tonne
20,000
19,000
China chemicals SunSirs
Ti02 Titanium Dioxide
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2022
• Key upside risks for AMC are a drop-off in raw material/input costs which turns near-term cost
headwinds into tailwinds (albeit raw mat costs are passed on both up and down) and consumer demand
trends stay stronger for longer due to ongoing COVID cases and work from home trends. On the ESG
front, AMC views sustainability as its largest organic growth opportunity and is on track for its products
to be fully recyclable or reusable by 2025 (along with release of a range of new product innovations).
• Key downside risks are if raw materials continue to push higher from current levels which creates a
bigger lag impact and also if AMC’s volume trends weaken as tougher COVID comps cycle over the
course of FY22. Re: ESG, there is a risk that AMC’s and the FMCG sector’s sustainability ambitions are
constrained by a lack of recycled resin availability which may delay timing to achieve targets.
• A$ is also a key swing factor with a higher A$ reducing the value of AMC’s US$ earnings and
dividends in A$ terms whilst a weaker A$ increases the value of AMC’s US$ earnings/dividends in A$
terms
Fig 6 Other currencies impacted FY21 net income by -$15m (Argentinian peso, Turkish lira,
Brazilian real the key drivers)
650
1 Jan 2017 = 100
550
450
350
USD/EUR
USD/CAD
USD/AUD
USD/CHF
USD/GBP
USD/SGD
USD/TRY
USD/THB
USD/HKD
USD/NZD
USD/CNY
USD/ARS
USD/BRL
250
150
50
Jan 17
Jul 17
Jan 18
Jul 18
Jan 19
Jul 19
Jan 20
Jul 20
Jan 21
Jul 21
Jan 22
Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, February 2022
2 February 2022
5
Macquarie Research
Fig 7
Amcor (AMC AU)
Global packaging valuation comparisons
June Year End
FY21
PE
FY22
FY23
FY21
EV/EBIT
FY22
FY23
FY21
EV/EBITDA
FY22
FY23
Flexibles
Amcor
Huhtamaki
Sealed Air
15.8
17.0
19.1
14.8
15.2
16.4
14.2
13.8
14.9
14.7
16.5
14.8
14.1
14.2
13.1
13.4
12.8
12.1
11.8
10.6
11.8
11.4
9.3
10.6
10.9
8.5
9.9
Fibre/Cans/Glass
Orora
Sonoco Products
Ball Corp
OI
Crown
20.8
16.3
27.7
7.4
15.4
19.0
14.7
23.7
7.1
14.6
17.9
13.5
20.4
6.4
12.6
15.8
13.4
24.2
9.4
13.2
14.9
13.1
21.5
9.3
13.0
14.0
11.9
19.4
8.7
12.1
10.7
9.1
18.1
5.7
11.1
10.2
8.9
16.5
5.7
10.7
9.6
8.2
15.2
5.4
10.1
Rigid Packaging
Pact
Berry Plastics (Sep yr end)
Aptar
Silgan
9.2
11.6
30.5
13.4
11.9
9.3
28.3
11.8
10.1
8.7
25.3
11.1
10.3
12.7
23.1
13.9
12.2
11.0
20.4
11.5
10.9
10.2
18.2
10.6
6.0
7.9
14.2
9.7
6.6
7.5
13.0
8.1
6.2
7.0
12.0
7.6
Global All Packaging Average (x)
ASX Packaging Average (x)
Global Flexibles Average excl AMC (x)
17.0
15.3
18.1
15.6
15.2
15.8
14.1
14.1
14.3
15.2
13.6
15.7
14.0
13.8
13.7
12.9
12.8
12.4
10.5
9.5
11.2
9.9
9.4
10.0
9.2
8.9
9.2
Industrials ex financials
ASX ex 100 (ex financials)
ASX ex 100
30.6
23.7
21.2
26.2
16.5
15.5
21.7
16.4
15.2
21.9
16.1
17.6
19.7
11.3
12.8
16.8
11.3
12.6
13.4
8.9
10.6
12.7
7.3
9.1
11.4
7.3
9.0

Source: Factset, Company data, Macquarie Research, February 2022
• AMC is trading on 14.8x FY22 PE, a discount to its closest global peers (Sealed Air, Huhtamaki) on
15.8x. AMC is trading at a premium on FY22 EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA vs global flexibles peers.
Fig 8 Recent history of upward guidance revisions by AMC inc at last two 1H results; this time reiteration
Date
Result/Outlook
21/08/19 AMC delivered 9% cc net income growth in FY19 and provided FY20 adj EPS growth guidance of 5-10% cc.
08/11/19 No change to FY20 guidance.
12/02/20 FY20 guidance upgraded to 7-10% cc adj EPS growth (5-10% prior).
12/05/20 FY20 guidance upgraded to 11-12% cc adj EPS growth (7-10% prior).
18/08/20 AMC delivered 13% cc adj EPS growth in FY20 and provided FY21 adj EPS growth guidance of 5-10% cc.
06/11/20 FY21 guidance upgraded to 7-12% cc adj EPS growth (5-10% prior).
03/02/21 FY21 guidance upgraded to 10-14% cc eps (7-12% prior).
05/05/21 FY21 guidance lift to 14-15% cc eps (10-14% prior).
18/08/21 AMC delivered 16% cc adj EPS growth in FY21 and provided FY22 adj EPS growth guidance of 7-11% cc.
03/11/21 FY22 guidance reiterated for adj EPS growth of 7-11% cc
02/02/22 FY22 guidance reiterated for adj EPS growth of 7-11% cc
Source: Macquarie Research, February 2022
2 February 2022
6
Macquarie Research
Fig 9
Amcor (AMC AU)
AMC share price +17% vs EPS +17% over the past 12 months
18
1.15
1.10
16
1.05
1.00
14
0.95
0.90
12
0.85
0.80
10
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
LHS – AMC share price ($)
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
0.75
Jan-22
RHS – AMC EPS NTM (AUD$/sh)
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2022
Fig 10
AMC is trading on par with the PE of its global peers vs a LTA premium of 4%
22.0
Forward PER: AMC vs 1Global peer average
20%
20.0
15%
18.0
10%
16.0
5%
14.0
0%
12.0
-5%
10.0
-10%
8.0
2012
2015
AMC
2018
-15%
2012
2021
2015
2018
2021
AMC prem/disc to global peers (%)
Average of global peers
Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, February 2022
Fig 11
AMC vs 1global peers NTM PE comparison
LTA
Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, February 2022
AMC trading at an 11% PE discount to Brambles vs LTA discount of 15%
Forward PER: AMC vs BXB
AMC vs BXB NTM PE comparison
25
10%
23
0%
21
19
-10%
17
15
-20%
13
11
-30%
9
7
2012
2014
2016
Amcor PLC
2018
2020
Brambles Limited
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2022
2 February 2022
2022
-40%
2012
2014
2016
2018
AMC Discount/Premium
2020
2022
LTA
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2022
7
Macquarie Research
Fig 12
Amcor (AMC AU)
AMC trading at its 2 year average PE of 14.9x, but below the 10 year average of 15.9x
1.40
AMC PE Ratio (NTM)
22
AMC vs S&P/ASX 100 Index Relative PE Ratio (NTM)
1.30
20
1.20
18
1.10
16
1.00
14
10yr avg
12
0.90
10yr avg
0.80
5yr avg
5yr avg
10
2yr avg
2yr avg
0.70
8
Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, February 2022
Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, February 2022
• AMC is trading on 14.9x twelve-month forward earnings (Factset consensus), which is below its 10-year
average of 15.9x. On a relative basis, AMC is trading on 0.91x PE relative to the market, which is below
its 10-year average of 1.04x but above the 2-year average of 0.82x.
Fig 13
AMC shares +17% over the last 12 months, below the peer group average of +23%
12 Month Performance of Packaging Stocks
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
Jan-21
Mar-21
AMC
May-21
ORA
PGH
Jul-21
Huhtamaki
Sep-21
Sealed Air
Nov-21
Jan-22
Berry Plastics
Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, February 2022
2 February 2022
8
Macquarie Research
Fig 14
Amcor (AMC AU)
AMC financial summary
Amcor Limited
Sales Revenue
2018a
2019a
2020a
1H21a
2H21a
2021a
1H22a
2H22e
2022e
2023e
2024e
9,323
9,458
12,468
6,200
6,661
12,861
6,927
7,051
13,978
13,813
14,215
Growth
2%
1.5%
31.8%
0.3%
6.0%
3.2%
11.7%
5.9%
8.7%
-1.2%
2.9%
Other Revenue
98
186
56
10
65
75
5
70
75
75
75
Total Revenue
9,421
9,645
12,524
6,210
6,726
12,936
6,932
7,121
14,053
13,888
14,290
EBITDA
1,442
1,394
1,913
948
1,081
2,028
976
1,122
2,098
2,197
2,288
Margin
15.5%
14.7%
15.3%
15.3%
16.2%
15.8%
14.1%
15.9%
15.0%
15.9%
16.1%
– Depreciation
321
319
416
205
202
407
207
202
409
423
438
EBITA
1121
1075
1497
743
879
1621
769
919
1688
1774
1850
– Amortisation
36
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
EBIT
1,086
1,075
1,497
743
879
1,621
769
919
1,688
1,774
1,850
Margin
13.0%
11.6%
11.4%
12.0%
12.0%
13.2%
12.6%
11.1%
13.0%
12.1%
12.8%
– Net Interest Exp
205
191
185
70
68
139
69
70
139
163
180
Pre-tax Profit
881
884
1,312
672
810
1,482
700
849
1,549
1,611
1,670
– Tax Expense
Tax Rate (Ord)
145
16.5%
148
16.8%
280
21.3%
145
21.5%
167
20.6%
312
21.1%
147
21.0%
178
21.0%
325
21.0%
346
21.5%
367
22.0%
Net Profit
+ Net Abnormals
+ Net Extraordiaries
IFRS adjustments
– Minority Interests
Reported Profit
Profit Before Abnormals
Adj Profit (abn and amort)
Gross Cashflow
EPS (adj)
EPS Growth
CFPS
DPS
Franking
EFPOWA
Segment Sales
Flexibles
Rigid Plastics
Total Sales
Segment Contributions
Flexibles
Rigid Plastics
Investments/Other
Total EBIT
EBIT margins
735
0
0
0
11
724
724
724
1,076
62.5
3%
93
45.0
0%
1,158
736
-299
0
1
7
430
729
729
749
61.6
-1%
63
58.0
0%
1,181
1,032
-416
0
0
4
612
1,028
1,028
1,099
64.2
4%
69
46.0
0%
1,602
527
-105
0
0
5
417
522
522
599
33.3
13.7%
38
23.5
0%
1,568
643
-114
0
0
7
522
636
636
738
41.1
17.8%
48
23.5
0%
1,547
1,170
-219
0
0
12
939
1,158
1,158
1,337
74.4
15.9%
86
47.0
0%
1,557
553
-121
0
0
5
427
548
548
671
35.8
7%
44
24.0
0%
1,531
670
-95
0
0
7
568
663
663
802
43.9
7%
53
25.8
0%
1,510
1,223
-206
0
0
12
1,005
1,211
1,211
1,483
79.7
7%
98
49.8
0%
1,520
1,265
-186
0
0
12
1,066
1,252
1,252
1,498
83.2
4%
100
50.3
0%
1,505
1,302
-186
0
0
13
1,104
1,290
1,290
1,550
85.7
3%
103
51.8
0%
1,505
6535
2788
9323
6567
2893
9459
9756
2716
12472
4850
1352
6202
5190
1471
6661
10040
2823
12863
5347
1580
6927
5512
1539
7051
10859
3119
13978
10588
3225
13813
10960
3256
14215
835
312
-62
1086
817
308
-50
1075
1296
284
-83
1497
653
134
-45
743
774
165
-61
879
1427
299
-105
1621
691
117
-39
769
809
171
-61
919
1500
288
-100
1688
1554
326
-106
1774
1607
353
-110
1850
Flexibles
12.8%
12.4%
13.3%
13.5%
14.9%
14.2%
12.9%
14.7%
13.8%
14.7%
14.7%
Rigid Plastics
Total EBIT
Cashflow Analysis
EBITDA
ch. In Working Capital
Net Interest Paid
Tax Paid
Other
Total Operating Cashflow
Capex
11.2%
11.6%
10.7%
11.4%
10.5%
12.0%
9.9%
12.0%
11.2%
13.2%
10.6%
12.6%
7.4%
11.1%
11.1%
13.0%
9.2%
12.1%
10.1%
12.8%
10.8%
13.0%
1,442
97
-197
-150
-255
937
-372
1,394
-1,479
-191
-148
1,200
776
-332
1,913
238
-187
-209
-371
1,384
-400
948
-154
-65
-168
-119
442
-218
1,081
150
-66
-153
8
1,019
-250
2,028
-4
-131
-321
-111
1,461
-468
976
-138
-47
-110
-358
323
-255
1,122
249
-70
-147
33
1,186
-269
2,098
111
-117
-257
-325
1,509
-524
2,197
-36
-163
-338
-100
1,561
-549
2,288
-36
-180
-358
-100
1,613
-575
PPE Sale Proceeds
Investments Movement
Loans Movement
Other
Total Investing Cashflow
Proceeds from Equity Issues
Borrowings Movement
Dividends Paid
Other
Total Financing Cashflow
Adjustments
Net Cash Movement
Balance Sheet
Cash
Other CA
Fixed Assets
Intangibles
Other NCA
Total Assets
S/T Debt (bank)
L/T Debt (bank)
Other Liabilities
Net Assets
S/H Funds
Min Interests
Total Equity
Net Debt/Equity
ND:ND+E
EBITDA: Int cover (x)
EBIT Int Cover (x)
RoE (%)
RoA (%)
A$:US$
A$:Euro
Euro:US$
Net debt
Net debt to EBITDA
Total debt to EBITDA
157
-13
-1
0
-229
-47
-141
-527
-3
-718
-6
-16
85
258
-1
0
10
-26
-58
-680
-2
-765
38
60
13
425
1
0
39
-537
125
-761
-1
-1,174
-108
141
4
138
0
0
-76
-75
40
-374
149
-260
-94
12
22
76
0
0
-152
-276
-138
-368
-149
-931
159
95
26
214
0
0
-228
-351
-98
-742
0
-1,191
65
107
6
0
0
0
-249
-336
471
-368
0
-233
-65
-224
-6
0
0
0
-275
-100
-471
-367
0
-938
0
-28
0
0
0
0
-524
-436
0
-735
0
-1,171
-65
-252
0
0
0
0
-549
0
0
-758
0
-758
0
254
0
0
0
0
-575
0
0
-773
0
-773
0
266
621
2,665
2,698
2,388
675
9,047
1,822
2,671
3,463
1,091
1,022
69
1,091
355%
78%
7.0
5.3
67%
12.0%
0.770
0.646
1.192
3872
2.69
3.1
602
4,609
3,975
5,156
2,824
17,165
794
5,309
5,387
5,675
5,609
66
5,675
97%
49%
7.3
5.6
13%
6.3%
0.714
0.624
1.144
5502
3.95
4.4
743
3,731
3,615
5,281
3,072
16,442
206
6,028
5,521
4,687
4,624
63
4,687
117%
54%
10.3
8.1
22%
9.1%
0.694
0.626
1.109
5491
2.87
3.3
755
3,807
3,767
5,304
3,085
16,718
53
6,432
5,385
4,848
4,785
63
4,848
118%
54%
13.5
10.5
22%
8.9%
0.723
0.612
1.181
5730
3.02
3.4
850
4,138
3,761
5,201
3,238
17,188
103
6,186
6,075
4,824
4,754
70
4,824
113%
53%
15.8
12.8
27%
10.2%
0.771
0.640
1.205
5439
2.52
2.9
850
4,138
3,761
5,201
3,238
17,188
103
6,186
6,075
4,824
4,754
70
4,824
113%
53%
14.6
11.7
24%
9.4%
0.746
0.626
1.193
5439
2.68
3.1
626
4,445
3,695
5,066
3,306
17,138
121
6,548
5,950
4,519
4,449
70
4,519
134%
57%
14.1
11.1
24%
9.0%
0.744
0.635
1.172
6043
3.10
3.4
626
4,302
3,768
5,066
3,306
17,068
121
6,105
6,237
4,605
4,528
77
4,605
122%
55%
15.9
13.1
29%
10.8%
0.726
0.640
1.135
5600
2.50
2.8
626
4,302
3,768
5,066
3,306
17,068
121
6,105
6,237
4,605
4,528
77
4,605
122%
55%
15.0
12.1
27%
9.9%
0.735
0.637
1.153
5600
2.67
3.0
626
4,276
3,893
5,066
3,306
17,167
121
5,851
6,278
4,917
4,828
89
4,917
109%
52%
13.5
10.9
26%
10.3%
0.748
0.657
1.138
5346
2.43
2.7
626
4,395
4,031
5,066
3,306
17,424
121
5,586
6,473
5,244
5,142
102
5,244
97%
49%
12.7
10.3
25%
10.6%
0.763
0.649
1.175
5081
2.22
2.5
Source: Company data, Macquarie research, February 2022
2 February 2022
9
Macquarie Research
Amcor (AMC AU)
Macquarie Quant Alpha Model Views
23/125
Global rank in
Containers & Packaging
% of BUY recommendations
Number of Price Target downgrades
Number of Price Target upgrades
Attractive
Fundamentals
The quant model currently holds a reasonably positive view on Amcor. The
strongest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had
strong medium to long term returns which often persist into the future. The
weakest style exposure is Growth, indicating this stock has weak historic
and/or forecast growth. Growth metrics focus on both top and bottom line
items.
Quant
Local market rank
50% (8/16)
0
4
Global sector rank
Displays where the
company’s ranked based on
the fundamental consensus
Price Target and
Macquarie’s Quantitative
Alpha model.
Two rankings: Local market
(Australia & NZ) and Global
sector (Containers &
Packaging)
Macquarie Alpha Model ranking
Factors driving the Alpha Model
A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score
(higher is better).
For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their
contribution to the current overall Alpha score.
Orora
Orora
1.3
Amcor
Amcor
1.0
Sealed Air Corp
0.6
Sealed Air Corp
Pact Group Holdings
-0.3
Pact Group Holdings
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
-100%
Valuations
-80%
-60%
Growth
-40%
-20%
Profitability
0%
20%
Earnings
Momentum
40%
60%
Price
Momentum
80%
100%
Quality
Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator
Drivers of Stock Return
The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions
signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction
revisions. Current score shown below.
Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes
in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple.
Orora
Orora
0.5
Amcor
Amcor
1.3
Sealed Air Corp
0.1
Sealed Air Corp
Pact Group Holdings
-0.5
Pact Group Holdings
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
-70%
Dividend Return
-50%
-30%
Multiple Return
-10%
10%
30%
Earnings Outlook
50%
What drove this Company in the last 5 years
How it looks on the Alpha model
Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company’s
returns over the last 5 years.
A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is
better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market.
⇐ Negatives Positives ⇒
Sales to EV FY0
27%
Price to Cash FY0
26%
Price to Cash LTM
26%
Price to Earnings LTM
24%
CFROI
-19%
BPS Growth FY1
-19%
Operating Margin FY0
-24%
Momentum 6 Month
-30%
Normalized
Score
-29%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Alpha Model Score
Valuation
Growth
Profitability
Earnings Momentum
Price Momentum
Quality
Capital & Funding
Liquidity
Risk
Technicals & Trading
0
Percentile relative
to sector(/125)
70%
1Yr Total Return
Percentile relative
to market(/432)
0.98
0.04
-0.33
-0.14
0.14
0.38
-0.03
0.20
-1.03
0.22
-0.92
0
0
1
50
100 0
50
1
100
Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Quant. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and
screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com)
2 February 2022
10
Macquarie Research
Amcor (AMC AU)
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions
Volatility index definition*
Financial definitions
Macquarie – Asia and USA
Outperform – expected return >10%
Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10%
Underperform – expected return 10%
Neutral – expected return from 0% to 10%
Underperform – expected return

Purchase answer to see full
attachment

Explanation & Answer:
3000 Words

Tags:
health and medical

Investor Communication

AMCOR Financial

User generated content is uploaded by users for the purposes of learning and should be used following Studypool’s honor code & terms of service.

Reviews, comments, and love from our customers and community:

Article Writing

Keep doing what you do, I am really impressed by the work done.

Alexender

Researcher

PowerPoint Presentation

I am speechless…WoW! Thank you so much!

Stacy V.

Part-time student

Dissertation & Thesis

This was a very well-written paper. Great work fast.

M.H.H. Tony

Student

Annotated Bibliography

I love working with this company. You always go above and beyond and exceed my expectations every time.

Francisca N.

Student

Book Report / Review

I received my order wayyyyyyy sooner than I expected. Couldn’t ask for more.

Mary J.

Student

Essay (Any Type)

On time, perfect paper

Prof. Kate (Ph.D)

Student

Case Study

Awesome! Great papers, and early!

Kaylin Green

Student

Proofreading & Editing

Thank you Dr. Rebecca for editing my essays! She completed my task literally in 3 hours. For sure will work with her again, she is great and follows all instructions

Rebecca L.

Researcher

Critical Thinking / Review

Extremely thorough summary, understanding and examples found for social science readings, with edits made as needed and on time. Transparent

Arnold W.

Customer

Coursework

Perfect!

Joshua W.

Student

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>