Early Benchmarks Discussion


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BY Richard Fry and Kim Parker
Richard Fry, Senior Economist
Kim Parker, Director, Social Trends Research
Jessica Pumphrey, Communications Associate
Pew Research Center, November 2018, “Early Benchmarks Show ‘Post-Millennials’ on Track to Be Most Diverse, Best-Educated
Generation Yet ”
About Pew Research Center
Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes
and trends shaping America and the world. It does not take policy positions. The Center conducts
public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis and other data-driven social
science research. It studies U.S. politics and policy; journalism and media; internet, science and
technology; religion and public life; Hispanic trends; global attitudes and trends; and U.S. social
and demographic trends. All of the Center’s reports are available at www.pewresearch.org. Pew
Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder.
© Pew Research Center 2018
References to whites, blacks and Asians and Pacific Islanders include only those who are nonHispanic and identify as only one race. Hispanics are of any race. Nonwhites include blacks,
Hispanics, other races and people who identify with more than one race.
“Full-time work” refers to working 35 hours per week or more in the past year.
References to college graduates or people with a college degree comprise those with a bachelor’s
degree or more. “Some college” includes those with an associate degree and those who attended
college but did not obtain a degree. “High school” refers to those who have a high school diploma
or its equivalent, such as a General Education Development (GED) certificate.
“Post-Millennials” refers to those ages 6 to 21 in 2018. Some aspects of the analysis use different
age ranges where appropriate. High school completion and college enrollment data are based on
those who were ages 18 to 20 in 2017 (the most recent year with available data). Enrollment below
the modal grade utilizes 6- to 17-year-olds. Employment data are based on those ages 15 to 21, as
this information is collected for civilians ages 15 and older. The family characteristics of children
are based on those ages 6 to 17.
As a new generation of Americans begins to take
shape and move toward adulthood, there is
mounting interest in their attitudes, behaviors
and lifestyle. But how will this generation change
the demographic fabric of the United States? A
new Pew Research Center analysis of Census
Bureau data finds that the “post-Millennial”
generation is already the most racially and
ethnically diverse generation, as a bare majority
of 6- to 21-year-olds (52%) are non-Hispanic
whites. And while most are still pursuing their K12 education, the oldest post-Millennials are
enrolling in college at a significantly higher rate
than Millennials were at a comparable age.
The parents of post-Millennials are more well
educated than the parents of Millennials and
those of previous generations, and this pattern
most likely contributes to the relative affluence
of the households in which post-Millennials live.
More than four-in-ten post-Millennials (43%)
are living with at least one parent who has a
bachelor’s degree or more education. Roughly a
third (32%) of Millennials in 2002 had a parent
with this level of education.
The high school dropout rate for the oldest post-Millennials (ages 18 to 20 in 2017) is significantly
lower than that of similarly aged Millennials in 2002. And among those who were no longer in
high school in 2017, 59% were enrolled in college – higher than the enrollment rate for 18- to 20year-old Millennials in 2002 (53%) and Gen Xers in 1986 (44%).
The changing patterns in educational attainment are driven in part by the shifting origins of young
Hispanics. Post-Millennial Hispanics are less likely than Millennial Hispanics to be immigrants –
12% of post-Millennial Hispanics were born outside the U.S., compared with 24% of Millennial
Hispanics in 2002. Previous research has shown that second-generation Hispanic youth tend to go
further in school than foreign-born Hispanic youth. That is borne out in this analysis, as 61% of
second-generation Hispanics ages 18 to 20 who were no longer in high school were enrolled in
college in 2017, compared with 40% of their foreign-born counterparts. Overall, the share of postMillennial Hispanics enrolled in college is significantly higher than the rate for Millennials in 2002
(55% vs. 34%, among 18- to 20-year-olds no longer in high school).1
More broadly, the post-Millennial generation is being shaped by
changing immigration patterns. Immigration flows into the U.S.
peaked in 2005, when the leading edge of the post-Millennial
generation was age 8 or younger. The onset of the Great
Recession and the large decline in employment led to fewer
immigrants coming to the United States, including immigrant
children. As a result, the post-Millennial generation has fewer
foreign-born youth among its ranks than the Millennial
generation did in 2002 and a significantly higher number who
were born in the U.S. to immigrant parents, though this may
change depending on future immigration flows.
The generation labeled “post-Millennials” in this report –
referred to elsewhere as Generation Z, the iGen or Homelanders
– includes those born after 1996. Pew Research Center uses the
label “post-Millennials” as a placeholder until more consensus
emerges as to their name.
For purposes of this analysis, the post-Millennial generation
spans 16 years, the same number of years as the Millennial
Because the most recent available data on educational attainment come from October 2017, the analysis of high school completion and
college enrollment is based on post-Millennials who were ages 18 to 20 in 2017.
generation (now ages 22 to 37). That may change as well, as this new generation – and the factors
that shape it – come into sharper focus.
This report compares the post-Millennials in 2018 with earlier generations when they were ages 6
to 21, examining their demographic characteristics as well as those of their parents and
Other key findings:

The oldest post-Millennials are less likely than their predecessors to be in the labor force. Only
58% of today’s 18- to 21-year-olds worked in the prior calendar year; this compares with 72%
of Millennial 18- to 21-year-olds in 2002. And employment among post-Millennials is less
likely to be full-time compared with earlier generations. This is likely due, in large part, to the
fact that these young adults are more likely than their predecessors to be enrolled in college.

The living arrangements of post-Millennial children are similar to those of Millennials when
they were growing up. About two-thirds (65%) of today’s 6- to 17-year-olds live with two
married parents, slightly lower than the share (68%) of Millennials in that age range who lived
in this type of household in 2002. Roughly three-in-ten post-Millennials ages 6 to 17 (31%) live
with a single parent, somewhat higher than the share of Millennials growing up with a single
parent in 2002 (27%).2

The median household income of post-Millennials exceeds that of earlier generations when
they were young. The typical post-Millennial in 2018 lives in a household with an annual
income of roughly $63,700 after adjusting for household size. That is slightly higher than the
income for the typical household in which Millennials grew up – $62,400 in 2002 in inflationadjusted dollars – and it far surpasses the income of Gen X and Baby Boomer households
when they were growing up. This is consistent with the relatively high education of the parents
of post-Millennials.
The typical 17-year-old is enrolled in 12th grade and most reside in the parental home. Some young adults ages 18 and older live in a
household that does not include their parents, and thus marital status of their parent or parents is not available.
A bare majority (52%) of postMillennials are non-Hispanic
white. One-in-four are Hispanic,
significantly higher than the
share of Millennials who were
Hispanic in 2002. The share of
post-Millennials who are black
(14%) is nearly identical to the
share of Millennials who were
black at a comparable age (15%).
Black representation among the
nation’s youth has changed little
since the early Boomers in 1968.
Asians account for 6% of the
post-Millennial generation, up
slightly from the 4% of
Millennials in 2002 who were
Asian. The remaining 4% of
post-Millennials are nonHispanics of another racial
identity, mainly youth of two or
more races.
Though post-Millennials are more likely to be Hispanic and Asian compared with prior
generations, they are not more likely, at this point, to be immigrants. Some 7% of post-Millennials
are foreign born, as were 8% of Millennials in 2002. However, post-Millennials are more likely to
be U.S. born of at least one foreign-born parent (22%) compared with Millennials in 2002 (15%).3
In terms of sheer numbers, the Millennial generation was shaped to a much larger extent by young
immigrants than the post-Millennials have been. When Millennials were ages 6 to 21 in 2002, they
numbered 65.3 million.4 Their ranks that year included 5.0 million immigrants. By contrast, only
The Current Population Survey did not begin to collect information on place of birth on a consistent basis until 1994.
This is based on the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, which covers the civilian, non-institutionalized population.
about 4.4 million of the 66.5 million postMillennials are immigrants – a pattern that
more closely mirrors the experience of Gen X.
Even with the diminished flow of immigrants
into the U.S., the racial and ethnic diversity of
the post-Millennial generation is expected to
increase in future years as new immigrants join
their numbers. Today’s 6- to 21-year-olds are
projected to become majority nonwhite in 2026
(when they will be ages 14 to 29), according to
Census Bureau projections.
Majority of post-Millennials are nonwhite in
urban areas and Western states
Post-Millennials, especially Hispanics,
are less likely than Millennials to be
foreign born
% of 6- to 21-year-olds, by nativity
Foreign born
U.S. born of
U.S. born of
U.S. parents
Note: Hispanics are of any race.
The geography and mobility of post-Millennials
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2002 and 2018 Current
Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement
differ from earlier generations. Reflecting
broader national trends, post-Millennials
“Early Benchmarks Show Post-Millennials on Track to Be Most
Diverse, Best-Educated Generation Yet”
overwhelmingly reside in metropolitan as
opposed to rural areas. Only 13% of postMillennials are in rural areas, compared with
18% of Millennials in 2002. By comparison, 23% of Gen Xers lived in rural areas when they were
ages 6 to 21, as did 36% of early Boomers.
In the nation’s urban areas and in the Western region of the U.S., post-Millennials are at the
leading edge of growing racial and ethnic diversity. Two-thirds of post-Millennials living in urban
counties are racial or ethnic minorities, with a plurality (36%) being Hispanic. Among Millennials,
59% who live in cities are racial or ethnic minorities. In rural (non-metropolitan) counties, only
29% of 6- to 21-year-olds are nonwhite – still somewhat higher than the share of rural Millennials
who are nonwhite (27%). Minorities constitute 43% of suburban post-Millennials. Among those
living in suburban counties, 39% of Millennials, 34% of Gen Xers and 23% of Boomers are
In the West, post-Millennials are just as likely to be Hispanic as non-Hispanic white (both 40%).
This stands in contrast to older generations. Among those residing in the West, 45% of
Comparisons between generations in the regional analysis are based off U.S. Census Bureau vintage 2017 county population estimates and
all generations are as of 2017. Historical comparisons of each generation at similar ages are not possible using this data set.
Millennials, 50% of Gen Xers and 64% of
Boomers are non-Hispanic white. Minority
representation among post-Millennials is
lowest in the Midwest, where roughly a third
(32%) of 6- to 21-year-olds are racial or ethnic
When it comes to geographic mobility,
Americans are not moving as they once did, and
post-Millennials are no exception. About 11% of
post-Millennials in 2018 had a different address
from a year earlier, implying that they had
moved. By comparison, 17% of Millennials and
20% of Gen Xers and early Boomers had moved
in the past year when they were the ages postMillennials are today.
In Western U.S., post-Millennials are
as likely to be Hispanic as white
% of 6- to 21-year-olds in 2017 who were …
7 3
12 4 5
5 9 7
Note: Racial groups include only single-race non-Hispanics.
Hispanics are of any race. Asians include Pacific Islanders.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau
vintage 2017 county population estimates.
“Early Benchmarks Show Post-Millennials on Track to Be Most
Diverse, Best-Educated Generation Yet”
While it’s still much too early to draw conclusions, initial signs suggest that post-Millennials are on
track to become the most well-educated generation yet.
As of 2017 (the most recent year available with school enrollment information) 80% of postMillennial 18- to 20-year-olds had finished high school.6 That represents a modest improvement
from previous generations. At the same ages, 76% of Millennials and 78% of Gen Xers had
completed high school. Some of the overall post-Millennial improvement stems from the leap in
high school completion among Hispanic youth. In 2017, 76% of Hispanic 18- to 20-year-olds had
finished high school, outpacing the 60% of Hispanic Millennials attaining this benchmark in 2002.
Black high school completion has also improved: 77% of black post-Millennials ages 18 to 20 had
finished high school, compared with 71% of black Millennials in this age group in 2002.
Since white post-Millennial high school attainment is no higher than among white Millennials,
some of the long-standing racial and ethnic gaps in high school completion are narrower among
the post-Millennials than was the case for prior generations.
The school enrollment supplement of the October Current Population Survey is the standard source for historical analyses of school and
college enrollment. The school enrollment supplement has been collected since at least 1955. Easily accessible repositories of the data (such
as IPUMS and the National Bureau of Economic Research) only have the school enrollment supplement from 1976 on.
The share of post-Millennials who have dropped
out of high school is significantly lower than it
was for Millennials. In 2017, 6% of 18- to 20year-old post-Millennials had neither finished
high school nor were enrolled in high school. By
comparison, 12% of Millennial 18- to 20-yearolds had dropped out of high school in 2002, as
had 13% of Gen Xers in 1986.
One indicator suggests that younger postMillennials are behind where Millennials were in
terms of their progress in K-12 education. In
2017, 30% of post-Millennials ages 6 to 17 were
enrolled below the “modal grade,” which is the
typical grade a child is enrolled in given his or
her age. By comparison, a quarter of Millennials
and Gen Xers were enrolled below the modal
grade in 2002 and 1986, respectively. This
indicator is of value because it can foreshadow
subsequent dropping out of school, particularly
if the student is behind in school due to grade
retention. It’s unclear from this data whether
students are behind grade-wise due to being held
back in school or whether their parents elected
to have them begin kindergarten at an older age.
Beyond K-12 education, post-Millennials are
more likely than earlier generations to be
pursuing college. In 2017, 59% of 18- to 20-yearolds who were no longer in high school were
enrolled in college. Among Millennials and Gen
Xers at similar ages smaller shares were
pursuing college (53% and 44%, respectively).
Some of the post-Millennial gain stems from Hispanic youth. More than half (55%) of Hispanic 18to 20-year-olds who were no longer in high school were enrolled in college last year. Less than half
of their Millennial (34%) and Gen X (28%) peers were pursuing college at a similar age.
Black post-Millennials are also outpacing the
previous generations of black youth in terms of
college enrollment. Among blacks ages 18 to 20
who were no longer in high school, 54% were
enrolled in college in 2017, compared with 47%
of black Millennials in 2002 and 34% of Gen
Xers in 1986.
Post-Millennial women are showing major
strides in college enrollment. In 2017, 64% of
women ages 18 to 20 who were no longer in high
school were enrolled in college. That’s up from
57% of similarly aged Millennials in 2002 and up
substantially from 43% of Gen Xers in 1986. The
trend, while more modest, has been upward
among men as well.
It’s important to point out that future
immigration patterns may affect the educational
outcomes of post-Millennials, so these
generational comparisons represent a current
Post-Millennials are slower to enter the labor
Post-Millennials are entering adulthood with less
experience in the labor market than prior
generations. Roughly one-in-five 15- to 17-yearolds in 2018 (19%) report having worked at all
during the prior calendar year, compared with
30% of Millennial 15- to 17-year-olds in 2002.
Almost half of early Baby Boomers (48%) in the
same age group worked in 1968. Among 18- to
21-year-olds today, 58% were employed during
the prior calendar year. At the same age prior
generations were much more likely to have been employed. Among Millennial 18- to 21-year-olds
in 2002, 72% reported working in the prior
year. Among Boomer 18- to 21-year-olds in
1968, 80% worked in the prior calendar year.
Post-Millennial workers are less likely to work
full-time compared with prior generations. In
2018, only 15% of 15- to 17-year-old workers
worked full-time, down sharply from the 26% of
15- to 17-year-old workers in 1968 who worked
full-time. The pattern is similar among 18- to
Post-Millennials less likely to work than
older generations when they were young
% of civilians who were employed during the prior year
15- to 17-year-olds
18- to 21-year-olds
Over the decades the earnings of American
workers have increased modestly, and teens
and young adults are no exception. If they
worked full-time in 2017, a 15- to 17-year-old
typically earned about $5,000 (the median).
Adjusting for inflation, a similar early
Millennial earned slightly less, $4,200. The
median earnings for a full-time 18- to 21-yearold today is $19,000, somewhat higher than the
median pay of a similarly aged full-time
Millennial worker in 2002 ($16,700).
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 1968, 1986, 2002 and
2018 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic
Supplement (IPUMS).
“Early Benchmarks Show Post-Millennials on Track to Be Most
Diverse, Best-Educated Generation Yet”
A common indicator of “at-risk” behavior in the transition to adulthood is the share of youth who
are neither enrolled in school nor working. Youth who are detached from school and the workplace
may not be acquiring valuable learning experiences and networking opportunities. PostMillennials are less likely to be detached than earlier generations. The shift has been more
significant among young women. Only 9% of 16- to 21-year-old post-Millennial women are
detached in 2018. About 12% of Millennial women and 16% of Gen X women were neither in
school nor working at a comparable age. Post-Millennial women who are detached are far less
likely to be married than detached Gen X women were at a similar age (12% vs. 37%).
Post-Millennial women are more likely to be engaged in school
and work than earlier generations in part because they have
fewer parenting responsibilities. Teen births have been falling,
even recently, and post-Millennial women are more likely to be
childless than earlier generations. In 2016, 88% of women ages
18 to 21 were childless, compared with 79% of Millennials and
80% of Gen Xers at a similar age.
Post-Millennials are less
likely to be detached
from school or work than
older generations
% of 16- to 21-year-olds who are
neither working nor enrolled in
Steady gains in college completion among U.S. adults are
reflected in the households of post-Millennials. Fully 43% of
post-Millennials ages 6 to 17 have at least one parent with a
bachelor’s degree or more education. This compares with 32%
among similarly aged Millennials in 2002, 23% among Gen Xers
in 1986 and only 16% among early Boomers in 1968.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of
1986, 2002 and 2018 Current Population
Survey Annual Social and Economic
Supplement (IPUMS).
“Early Benchmarks Show Post-Millennials
on Track to Be Most Diverse, BestEducated Generation Yet”
Roughly two-thirds (65%) of post-Millennials ages 6 to 17 live in
a household with two married parents; fully 31% live with a
single parent.7 The share of 6- to 17-year-olds living with two
married parents is down slightly from the share of Millennials who were growing up with two
married parents in 2002 (68%). Gen Xers were even more likely to live with two married parents –
73% did so in 1986. And for the early Boomers, this type of arrangement was very much the norm:
85% of early Boomers ages 6 to 17 were living with two married parents in 1968.
Of those children and teens who are living with two married parents, most live in dual-earner
households. Slightly fewer post-Millennials have two working parents compared with Millennials
in 2002 (63% vs. 66%). In 1986, 59% of Gen X youth (ages 6 to 17) with married parents had both
parents in the labor force, up substantially from 37% among similarly aged Boomers in 1968.
Prior to 2007 a second parent in the household can only be identified if he or she is married to the first parent. Children residing with two
unmarried parents are classified as single parent families. Step and adoptive parents are included as well as biological parents.
Post-Millennials have the same number of
siblings living with them as Millennials did at a
similar age – 1.5, on average. This is down
substantially from what the early Boomers
experienced in their youth. Among those ages 6
to 17 in 1968, the average number of siblings
was 2.6. By the time the Gen Xers came along,
that number had fallen to 1.6 (in 1986).
Older post-Millennials appear to be postponing
marriage even more than Millennials were at a
similar age. Among those ages 18 to 21, only 4%
of post-Millennials are married. Millennials in
2002 were nearly twice as likely to be married
(7%), and the rate was higher still among Gen
Xers in 1986 (12%). In 1968, 26% of early
Boomers ages 18 to 21 were married.
About three-in-ten post-Millennials live
with an unmarried parent
% of 6- to 17-year-olds who live with …
Married parents
in 2018
in 2002
Gen Xers
in 1986
Early Boomers
in 1968
Unmarried parent
No parent
13 2
Note: Excludes 6- to 17-year-olds living in group quarters,
householders and their spouses.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 1968, 1986, 2002 and
2018 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic
Supplement (IPUMS).
“Early Benchmarks Show Post-Millennials on Track to Be Most
Diverse, Best-Educated Generation Yet”
Some measures of economic well-being indicate
that post-Millennials are growing up in more
affluent circumstances than previous
generations did. The median or typical
household income of 6- to 21-year-olds is $63,700. After adjusting for inflation the typical
Millennial grew up in a household with a slightly lower income level ($62,400). The typical
household income resources of Gen Xers ($52,800) and early Boomers ($42,000) growing up
were significantly below these levels.8 By the official poverty measure, 17% of post-Millennials live
in families that are below the poverty line.9 This may exceed the share of Millennials in poverty in
2002 (16%) but is below the share of Gen Xers in 1986 (19%).
If they have the same income, holding other factors the same, households with fewer members are better off financially than larger
households. So, the household income calculations follow a standard practice of adjusting for the size of the household. The Census Bureau
revised the income questions in 2014 so the post-Millennial household income and poverty figures are not strictly comparable with earlier
9 The Census Bureau publishes an alternative poverty measure called the supplemental poverty measure. Among other differences from the
official poverty rate, the supplemental measure includes the value of noncash transfer payments (such as food stamps) and adjusts for
geographic differences in the cost of housing. The supplemental poverty rate for 6- to 21-year-olds in 2018 is 16%. The supplemental
measure is not available before 2010.
Post-Millennials live in households with
higher median household incomes than
older generations did when young
Economic situation of 6- to 21-year-olds
Share in
Share in
Post-Millennials in 2018
Millennials in 2002
Gen Xers in 1986
Early Boomers in 1968
Note: Household incomes are as of the previous calendar year and are scaled
to a three-person household and expressed in 2017 dollars. Poverty status is
as of the previous year. Housing tenure as of March of the given year.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 1968, 1986, 2002 and 2018 Current
Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (IPUMS).
“Early Benchmarks Show Post-Millennials on Track to Be Most Diverse, BestEducated Generation Yet”
This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals.
Find related reports online at pewresearch.org/socialtrends
Kim Parker, Director, Social Trends Research
Juliana Horowitz, Associate Director, Research
Richard Fry, Senior Economist
Anthony Cilluffo, Research Assistant
Anna Brown, Research Analyst
Claudia Deane, Vice President, Research
Jessica Pumphrey, Communications Associate
Michael Keegan, Information Graphics Designer
David Kent, Copy Editor
Travis Mitchell, Digital Producer
Most of the demographic and employment data in this report are derived from the Current
Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplements (ASEC), which is conducted in
March of every year. Conducted jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, the CPS is a monthly survey of approximately 60,000 households and is the source of
the nation’s official statistics on unemployment. The ASEC survey in March features a larger
sample size. Data on income and poverty from the ASEC survey serve as the basis for the wellknown Census Bureau report on income and poverty in the United States. The Census Bureau’s
historical tables on the living arrangements of children are also based on the ASEC.
The CPS is representative of the civilian non-institutionalized population. The ASEC survey has
been collected since 1947 but samples before 1968 do not include persons younger than 14.
The school and college enrollment information is derived from the annual school enrollment
supplement to the CPS. Conducted during October, the Census Bureau has collected enrollment
data since 1945. The October CPS is a standard source for measuring high school dropout rates
and college enrollment and is the basis for the bureau’s historical tables on high school completion
and college-going.
The CPS microdata used in this report are the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS)
provided by the University of Minnesota. IPUMS assigns uniform codes, to the extent possible, to
data collected in the CPS over the years. More information about IPUMS, including variable
definitions and sampling error, is available at http://cps.ipums.org/cps/documentation.shtml.
Estimates of the racial and ethnic origins of post-Millennials for Census regions and urban,
suburban and rural counties utilized the 2017 population estimates of the Census Bureau. The
bureau provides a special tabulation file of county population estimates by single year of age, race
and ethnicity.

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